tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5811749743523633503.post4648612265924479235..comments2024-03-20T11:36:53.907+00:00Comments on Restoring Mayberry: Notes from Dmitri OrlovBrian Kallerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11082602126850605083noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5811749743523633503.post-88630875271413768992009-06-24T00:01:55.561+01:002009-06-24T00:01:55.561+01:00Orlov clears up the 25-percent issue in a follow-u...Orlov clears up the 25-percent issue in a follow-up post: <br /><br />http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2009/06/errata.htmlBrian Kallerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11082602126850605083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5811749743523633503.post-80447630060468399392009-06-23T10:56:11.046+01:002009-06-23T10:56:11.046+01:00Aron,
True, I think we could shave off more than...Aron, <br /><br />True, I think we could shave off more than 90 percent of communications and not be worse off, in this age when information has become garbage – of course, everyone will think their own communiqués are the ones worth saving. I can see things like the Internet used much more frugally, though – say, a constant broadband connection for a hundred-person neighbourhood, who can sign up to use it for half an hour a day. Or a rationed infrastructure where the electrical grid operates during certain hours. I can see communities planning more arrangements like this in difficult times. <br /><br />I’m not seeing the SUV rationale that you’re seeing. I agree that renewable energy might pay off more down the road than immediately, but that’s a good reason to invest. <br /><br />I might have been going on fossil fuels in general – I don’t have the back of that envelope in front of me. <br /><br />Thank you for the compliment. Not really -- I have pessimistic days and optimistic ones, but mostly I see the same range of possibilities. We are probably not going to colonize the galaxy or go extinct this year; rather, we (in the Western First World, at least) are going to keep the suburban developments and highways we have now, but with less money, imported goods and fuel. Within that range I think it likely that we can segue to a stable prosperity that combines the best of old and new – backyard gardens, small farms, community, windmills, commuter trolleys, pared-down internet – that I described in the AmCon article. If people refuse to prepare, though, or panic during the next outage or shortage, there are darker possibilities. <br /><br />I’m more concerned about the natural world – not so much cute pandas or spotted owls, nice as they are, but about, for example, the massive, recent drop in the plankton that forms the basis of ocean life. Changes like that would be an entirely different magnitude of danger, and they are still poorly understood. Thankfully, what helps with one group of concerns – localization, simplicity, self-reliance – seems likely to help with the other as well.Brian Kallerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11082602126850605083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5811749743523633503.post-6458679116894645492009-06-22T10:24:31.687+01:002009-06-22T10:24:31.687+01:00"Picking what would be the less-energy option..."Picking what would be the less-energy option would be very complicated."<br />Well, yes and no. It is probably true that we use more energy for transmitting information but the efficiency is far better (the bit/Joule ratio). The problem is that most of the info going around today is crap :) (TV, YouTube etc.)<br />A good question would be what the minimal energy requirement for the Internet in a big energy shortage situation is. <br />I guess if we could limit the crap info by billing according to network usage and this way we need much less server farms and routers running. And because of the tech advancements these fewer computers would still provide the service we had a few years ago for much less energy.<br /><br />"There's also Jeavon's Paradox, which states that if we use energy more efficiently, it will be cheaper, and we will use more of it."<br />This is a very interesting question. Well, we do use energy to the limit. This is a very sad thing.<br />I guess this is caused by the fact that competing nations do not want to start saving and let the others take advantage. <br />It's an economic arms race game. <br />After thinking a while about this I came to the conclusion that it was a very rational decision from the USA to support gas guzzling SUV-s in this decade. It might not have been the smartest choice in the long run, but you can find supporting arguments.<br />Like: maybe if the US would have taxed gas like Europe, China would now have a much stronger army.<br />The only reason for investing into renewable energy in this moment is that it will have a good return in 10-20 years (e. g. for solar power plants). Even we can see a return today:<br />the high taxation of fuel in Europe and Japan now paid off in crushing the american car industry (unfortunately the US government is trying to save it).<br /><br />"I agree, I calculate the percentage to be more like 14%."<br />How did you get 14?<br />Let's see a rough calc:<br />85 million barrels/day<br />means 31 billion/year multiplied by 145 dollars/barrel<br />adds up to 4.5 trillion dollars/year<br /><br />The <a href="http://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/world-economic-indicators/world-gdp.html" rel="nofollow">GDP was 65 trillion for 2007</a>.<br />7%<br />But 145 was the maximum, the price average was more like 75 for 2007, which means 3,5 - 4%.<br />14% sounds more like all energy which sounds quite reasonable at first glance because electricity and gasoline at the pump have more costs than crude oil.<br /><br />" As for gold, I don't know enough to take sides on the issue, except that it's not friends and you can't eat it."<br /><br />:) Friends are of course much more important. I speculate that if things get worse, much worse, I will still be able to trade gold and silver for food, because people will trade at some level, and you need some kind of money for that (of course Fiat money collapses in this case). If things get worse than that, my guess is that we won't be able to survive at all, only cockroaches and rats...<br />I'm hoping that politicians are not _that_ stupid...<br /><br />Btw. did you get more pessimistic since the AmCon article? (I liked it very much and that is how I found your blog)Aronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11448579989807914542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5811749743523633503.post-27330969818566444962009-06-17T15:20:29.387+01:002009-06-17T15:20:29.387+01:00Aron,
I agree that good technology allows us to ...Aron, <br /><br />I agree that good technology allows us to use less energy, provided you define "good" as "that which allows us to use less energy." <br /><br />Seriously, technology can be a very good thing, but it's not a simple quality that can be factored in - using broadband to transmit information is much faster and easier right now than shipping a crate of books, but it requires a vast infrastructure of electronics makers, electrical transformers, communications sattelites and so on. Picking what would be the less-energy option would be very complicated. <br /><br />There's also Jeavon's Paradox, which states that if we use energy more efficiently, it will be cheaper, and we will use more of it. <br /><br />I agree, I calculate the percentage to be more like 14%. As for gold, I don't know enough to take sides on the issue, except that it's not friends and you can't eat it.Brian Kallerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11082602126850605083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5811749743523633503.post-35920926917370979252009-06-17T11:36:25.860+01:002009-06-17T11:36:25.860+01:00Hi,
"technology requires energy"
Good t...Hi,<br />"technology requires energy"<br /><br />Good technology enables us to require <b>less</b> energy.<br /><br />"the crash seemed to take place when the price of oil reached about 25 percent of global GDP"<br />Is this correct?<br />Even with 147$ price the price of oil seems to be 4.5 trillion dollars/year.<br />The world GDP was 65.6 trillion in 2007.<br /><br />Investing is precious metals a bad idea?<br />Hmmm, maybe... IMHO gold is the longest pricing bubble in histroy :)<br />But you need some kind of money in case of a FIAT money collapse and I think LETS is a good idea, but you also need some harder currency than that.Aronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11448579989807914542noreply@blogger.com