tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5811749743523633503.post4772457665853518264..comments2024-03-29T05:55:02.417+00:00Comments on Restoring Mayberry: Backing away from the hyperboleBrian Kallerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11082602126850605083noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5811749743523633503.post-26834174721723915972016-12-01T21:20:42.810+00:002016-12-01T21:20:42.810+00:00Thanks, Sam and Ken!
BCZ, thank you for those tho...Thanks, Sam and Ken!<br /><br />BCZ, thank you for those thoughts. I absolutely agree that no previous era of American history matches this one exactly, and that we now face a unique combination of factors. I wanted to pick my words carefully on this very charged issues; I'm not dismissing people's concerns, merely stating that all these things have happened before in some combination or other, that panicking will solve nothing, and that fear feeds on itself. <br /><br />Mr. Trump could, hypothetically, be the USA's Hitler, but I don't find it likely. His term could also be a benefit to the country, or just a little worse than his predecessors, or not significant at all. We just don't know yet. <br /><br />I'm saying that in the Great Depression, bank runs happened because everyone believed they would, so everyone ran to the bank, causing their fears to come true. In the same way, the more people believe that their society will end soon and violently, the more they will panic, not think clearly, mistrust their neighbours, pursue selfish ends, and do all kinds of things that help collapse a neighbourhood or town. <br /><br />Anonymous, I know what Belfast is like, and I'm saying that's a possibility in my own country, and it won't be pleasant. But see my response above to BCZ - there's nothing inevitable about such a fate. Brian Kallerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11082602126850605083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5811749743523633503.post-51532087529975509822016-11-29T10:35:54.784+00:002016-11-29T10:35:54.784+00:00Brian
For this Brit outsider your post was as usua...Brian<br />For this Brit outsider your post was as usual thoughtful and useful. However, I take BCZ’ cautionary comment seriously. He is unsure like the rest of us, but his wondering if, for example, “your relaxed perspective is the nobility of the band on the deck of the titanic”, rings a bell with me. If USA can avoid (we hope) direct war home-or-away, then I daresay you are right that the nation could trundle along in some or other adaptive mode. But Greer in another cautionary tale has conjectured a plausible enough scenario where USA suffers a direct military defeat abroad with serious domestic result in the fragile homeland. I hope to goodness he and BCZ are both merely cautionary.<br /><br />Have you been in Northern Ireland recently? Our youngest daughter made a recent exploration including Belfast. As a young Brit from the mainland she had never been in a British city that was clearly still the aftermath of a warzone even decades after the action stopped. The signs were everywhere. “Molly and Amy and Adam” had suffered a murder rate gone through the roof.<br /><br />best<br />Phil<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5811749743523633503.post-4256997761130456982016-11-25T20:56:31.801+00:002016-11-25T20:56:31.801+00:00I like this post very much, though I believe it is...I like this post very much, though I believe it is overly flip about the nature of the current political situation.<br /><br />As a political scientist specializing in constitutional design, stability, and policy adaptation this is a very unique situation. To downplay it is folly. It is unprecedented (and I say this with a full picture of American political history, and a good deal of knowledge about constitutional developments around the world) to have a situation as multidimensionally bad as this one,<br /><br />There have been times of populists before. You mention Andrew Jackson, for instance, There has been a time of highly unified government... most notably during FDR's administrations. There have been times of great social and cultural polarization such as the 1920's or on the eve of the civil war. There has been times when clever use of new media could lead to substantial social control such as with the rise of broadcasting....<br /><br />But K can find no time with unified government, high degrees of media manipulation, a highly polarized public, a highly polarized party system, a populist insurgency, and no Immediate existential external threat at the same time. Can you?<br /><br />All of these factors, in isolation are warning signs for political instability, the erosion of liberty, autocracy or anarchy. None of this though says it is inevitable, but I would suggest that the probability of some truly epic disasters are higher than they have been in some time.<br /><br />This does not even begin to discuss the lack of legitimacy of this election in the eyes of a probably record number of Americans (you though Bush v Gore was bad?), the unbelievably dire electoral future the GOP has unless it either radically shits it's approach, alters the rules of the game to disenfranchise enemies, or both... nor does it touch on the particularly brutal social forces that are being toyed with by the Trump team... the lost goes on. Any one of these (and in some cases of hysteria it was only one of these) would be concerning, but certainly no cause for serious alarm. All together are positively worrying for those who have studied the history of free societies and their ills.<br /><br />Moreover, it is understandable to take the stoic perspective (as I do), and acknowledge that all these things happen. Even extinction level events. From the perspective of the universe it is all going to be okay.... but I think mortals are justified in being a bit nervous by the truly unprecedented combination of factors we see. I give *some* of those sounding the alarm some credit, when Bush was elected,and Reagan was elected... there were concerns. In both cases though we saw this refugees of autocratic states, or the amazing regime poo poo this hysteria... deeming it an insult to the horror of autocracy, we see the opposite now. Combined with the above observations it makes me wonder if you relaxed perspective is the nobility of the band on the deck of the titanic, or the folly of the those convinced that reality could not invent new tortures for the designers of unsinkable ships of wisdom.BCZhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05606039003291904395noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5811749743523633503.post-16529126563106479062016-11-25T20:55:40.123+00:002016-11-25T20:55:40.123+00:00I like this post very much, though I believe it is...I like this post very much, though I believe it is overly flip about the nature of the current political situation.<br /><br />As a political scientist specializing in constitutional design, stability, and policy adaptation this is a very unique situation. To downplay it is folly. It is unprecedented (and I say this with a full picture of American political history, and a good deal of knowledge about constitutional developments around the world) to have a situation as multidimensionally bad as this one,<br /><br />There have been times of populists before. You mention Andrew Jackson, for instanc., There has been a time of highly unified government... most notably during FDR's administrations. There have been times of great social and cultural polarization such as the 1920's or on the eve of the civil war. There has been times when clever use of new media could lead to substantial social control such as with the rise of broadcasting....<br /><br />But K can find no time with unified government, high degrees of media manipulation, a highly polarized public, a highly polarized party system, a populist insurgency, and no Immediate existential external threat at the same time. Can you?<br /><br />All of these factors, in isolation are warning signs for political instability, the erosion of liberty, autocracy or anarchy. None of this though says it is inevitable, but I would suggest that the probability of some truly epic disasters are higher than they have been in some time.<br /><br />This does not even begin to discuss the lack of legitimacy of this election in the eyes of a probably record number of Americans (you though Bush v Gore was bad?), the unbelievably dire electoral future the GOP has unless it either radically shits it's approach, alters the rules of the game to disenfranchise enemies, or both... nor does it touch on the particularly brutal social forces that are being toyed with by the Trump team... the lost goes on. Any one of these (and in some cases of hysteria it was only one of these) would be concerning, but certainly no cause for serious alarm. All together are positively worrying for those who have studied the history of free societies and their ills.<br /><br />Moreover, it is understandable to take the stoic perspective (as I do), and acknowledge that all these things happen. Even extinction level events. From the perspective of the universe it is all going to be okay.... but I think mortals are justified in being a bit nervous by the truly unprecedented combination of factors we see. I give *some* of those sounding the alarm some credit, when Bush was elected,and Reagan was elected... there were concerns. In both cases though we saw this refugees of autocratic states, or the amazing regime poo poo this hysteria... deeming it an insult to the horror of autocracy, we see the opposite now. Combined with the above observations it makes me wonder if you relaxed perspective is the nobility of the band on the deck of the titanic, or the folly of the those convinced that reality could not invent new tortures for the designers of unsinkable ships of wisdom.BCZhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05606039003291904395noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5811749743523633503.post-51090243776818273952016-11-23T15:47:40.764+00:002016-11-23T15:47:40.764+00:00Thank you for this excellent column.Thank you for this excellent column.Ken Hamiltonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14372145477633923338noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5811749743523633503.post-61398670760383143612016-11-20T14:38:40.453+00:002016-11-20T14:38:40.453+00:00I appreciate everything you wrote. I have been try...I appreciate everything you wrote. I have been trying to help people to see this view of the election in a proper context and to argue policy if they want to argue rather than point fingers at their friends and family for aiding and abetting the next Hitler. Everyone was just trying to make the best decision possible. The real travesty is that so much rides on what should be a far less significant position.<br /><br />Thanks Brian.Sam Ritterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04263004141267291587noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5811749743523633503.post-9923078775350964132016-11-20T14:30:07.315+00:002016-11-20T14:30:07.315+00:00Thank you Juliana! That's exactly what I was g...Thank you Juliana! That's exactly what I was going for - thanks for reading.<br />Brian Kallerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11082602126850605083noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5811749743523633503.post-29072948392686686722016-11-20T14:05:47.602+00:002016-11-20T14:05:47.602+00:00This is one of the best comments on the election t...This is one of the best comments on the election that I've read--thank you for your thoughts, and for placing things in greater context. Ahistoricism in American culture is one of my personal pet peeves, and it is refreshing to hear the election contextualized in the larger sweep of history. I also appreciate your observations on the role of the internet and entertainment, not just in creating media bubbles, but in perpetuating the disaster narrative we all live with on the daily. I appreciate this post so much.Julianahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09134771358325901297noreply@blogger.com